Economic Assumptions
The manuscript presents a transparent sensitivity analysis for a hypothetical 100-guard company. The earlier 3–6× ROI claim is withdrawn.
Model scope
Guard payroll is calculated from 100 guards, 2,080 annual hours each, and the BLS May 2024 median security-guard wage of $18.46 per hour — approximately $3.84 million in annual gross guard payroll.
The model monetizes only two categories:
- Administrative hours saved
- Payroll exceptions prevented or corrected
It excludes retention, days-sales-outstanding, client renewal, liability reduction, and revenue growth to reduce double counting.
Illustrative scenarios
| Case | Estimated benefit | Annual cost | Net ROI | Benefit-cost ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | $30,399 | $60,000 | -49% | 0.51 |
| Base | $60,798 | $45,000 | 35% | 1.35 |
| High | $100,797 | $30,000 | 236% | 3.36 |
Assumptions for low, base, and high cases:
- Administrative hours saved per week: 10 / 20 / 30 at $40 loaded hourly cost
- Payroll recovery: 0.25% / 0.50% / 1.00% of gross payroll
- Annual system cost: $60K / $45K / $30K
Important notice
These figures are illustrative sensitivity scenarios and are not measured production results.
Report gross benefit, implementation cost, recurring cost, net benefit, benefit-cost ratio, and uncertainty separately in any future pilot.